When we talk about the year 2050, it can feel a little bit preposterous, like something out of science fiction – similar to Marty McFly riding his hoverboard in the movie Back to the Future II. And according to the movie, hoverboarding was supposed to happen in 2015.
And that’s how bad we are at predicting the future!
But think about this: 2050 is less than 26 years away.
Think about how old you’ll be 26 years from now and where you’ll be. (Or won’t be!)
In 1980, Rick Warren launched Saddleback Church in Southern California. Along with Willow Creek in Chicago, Warren and Saddleback were a part of pioneering the modern-day seeker-sensitive church. One could even argue that those like Warren in the late 70s and 80s popularized the most prevalent form of church planting today: The Launch Model.
It’s worth pondering that while 2050 is still 26 years away, we are already 44 years removed from the start of Saddleback, and 49 years from the start of Willow Creek. This means we’re nearly 50 years into our current church planting model.
In 2050, some things will probably be the same, but many, many, many things will have changed.
In 1980, the United States was 83% White. By the time today’s newborns finish college, they’ll graduate into an America with no majority race, where Whites will then be less than half the population.1
This also means the church leaders of 2050 are already filling up our nurseries and elementary schools. And how we set them up hinges on how well we pay attention to our current systems and structures, and the signs of our times.
Church Planting Manifesto: Principle #10
Looking to the future, the Church Multiplication Institute missiologist council formulated A Church Planting Manifesto for 21st Century North America.2 Affirmed by more than 200 leaders, the manifesto consists of 12 essential principles that church leaders should think deeply about as they steer their movements toward greater missional effectiveness and toward the oncoming decades. Principle 10 specifically addresses the need to assess our current mission structures in order to create better wineskins for our time and the next generation.
Regular and ongoing evaluation of mission strategies, structures, and systems is necessary for contextually-appropriate methods and models.
(Habakkuk 3:2; Mark 2:21-22)
We affirm that Jesus’ commission to make disciples of all nations often necessitates new ways of discovering how God is at work throughout the world in church planting. The successes of the past can often be our greatest hindrances for the necessary discoveries of the future. This means that denominations and networks have to do the hard work of identifying and removing any traditions or structures that are hindrances from obedience to God and effectiveness in mission.
We commit ourselves to the humility of open and reflective self-evaluation. Where constructs such as tradition, structure, or even proven methods become stumbling blocks for aligning with how God is at work, we gladly leave them behind. We resist building monuments to the past if it means missing out on what God is doing now.
Because we are nearly five decades into our most prevalent models of church and church planting, today and right now is the time to begin venturing to see what are the innovative expressions of church and discipleship that the Spirit of God is developing and hovering over. These may become the wineskins from which the next generation of church leaders and planters are developed and will lead.
Four Shaping Factors of the Future Church
Factor #1: The Arrival Church
In just a few generations, the faces and demographics of America changed dramatically. Over 44 million people residing in the United States are immigrants, and some are quickly moving from the margins to the center of American Christianity.
Sociologist Stephen Warner makes this brilliant observation that “The new immigrants represent not the de-Christianization of American society but the de-Europeanization of American Christianity.”3
The largest American evangelical denomination is the Southern Baptist Convention, which has reported a gradual drop in membership every year since 2006 when it consisted of 16.3 million people. In 2021, the denomination reported a membership of 14.09 million. Although this is a significant drop in membership over 15 years, during that time the denomination also saw significant growth in the number of new non-Anglo churches. In its 2020 annual report, the SBC reported nearly 20 percent of its churches are now non-White, with more than 60 percent of its newest churches being started and led by non-White pastors. While the SBC is still largely White, its consistent growth among non-White churches, in particular new immigrant churches, has kept it from experiencing an even faster decline.
In other cases, the rise of immigrant churches has led to net denominational growth.
The Assemblies of God has reported membership growth almost every year over the last three decades – decades in which many other denominations saw a vast decline. Its largest growth has been among Hispanic churches, which now comprise almost a quarter of all their churches.
The Assemblies of God has shown no noticeable growth among White members in 20 years. In 2001, the number of White members was 1.85 million. In 2019, the number of White members was 1.85 million. Today, it reports that nearly half of its members are “ethnic minorities.” (That’s their terminology.)
These two large evangelical denominations show that a key difference-maker for staving off fast membership decline is the growth of non-White churches and the arrival of immigrant Christians. While growth and decline are nuanced in other ways – such as changing denominational affiliation, birth and death rates, and the rise of non-denominational churches – there’s no doubt that the global church has had a huge positive impact on the American church. You may or may not have an example of that on stage. But to put it another way, over the last 30 years, global Christianity has been saving American Evangelicalism from an all-out free fall and decline.4
Factor #2: Generations Z and Alpha
Rick Warren was 26 when he started Saddleback. You could say he was an early starter in church planting. If he were planting today, he’d be the oldest of Gen-Z.
Our grad schools, seminaries (to a degree), and workforce are now filling up with Gen-Z.
In his book Meet Generation Z: Understanding and Reaching the New Post-Christian World, James Emery White says, “As the first truly post-Christian generation, and numerically the largest, Generation Z will be the most influential religious force in the West and the heart of the missional challenge facing the Christian church.”5
If we want to stir up and capture the missional imagination for the next few decades, we can’t only tell our stories of mission. We must also let Gen-Z craft and contextualize mission for their generation. In about four more years, our strongest mission force in North America should be Gen-Z – if we don’t lose their attention.
By the end of this next presidential election, Gen-Z should be our main mission force!
If all goes well, then 26 years from now, Gen-Z will be sitting in the chairs of today’s leaders – supposing our churches, networks, and denominations are still worth leading by then, and we’re willing to do a hand-off.
We have two basic options when it comes to the next generation: 1) lead our institutions in a timeless way so that the next generation will be willing to lead after us, or 2) begin helping Gen-Z dream and create their own institutions.
Now, the oldest of Gen-Alpha is about 11 years old. They’re still filling up the birth wards in our hospitals for a few more years. In 2050, Gen-Alpha should make up the majority of church leaders and church planters.
But because they’re so young right now, there isn’t much market research on their consumer behaviors. But that doesn’t mean they’re not making a difference even now. Did you know that at one point, the highest income earner on YouTube was a Gen-Alpha? His name is Ryan Kaji and just turned 12 years old. Your grandkids know him from Ryan’s Toy Review.
And in case you think he’s just another Macaulay Culkin or Britney Spears, here are two key differences:
- Ryan is mixed Japanese-Vietnamese.
- YouTube is a completely different platform and scale than movies and music.
The fact that some still think movies and music is the path toward celebrity influence goes to show how much they misunderstand YouTube’s platform and the new digital ecosystem. And that also goes to show how many of us in older generations underestimate how different the next generation is when it comes to who and how they look to influence.
Factor #3: Post-Secular Prophets and Narratives
The seeker-sensitive movement began taking shape around the time evangelicals entered the conversation about post-modernity. Catholics, mainliners, and other Protestants had already been talking about postmodernism for at least a few decades by then. (Evangelicals tend to be late to these things. For reference, read Mark Noll’s book The Scandal of the Evangelical Mind.)
But the post-modern and post-truth frameworks helped give rise to apologetics and rational approaches to evangelism. I know when I was in college from 1997-2001, Campus Crusade could still fill up huge auditoriums doing Veritas Forum-type events and debates about the existence of God, Creation vs. Evolution, or whatever. But the tarnished legacy of RZIM and the recent sidelining of Josh MacDowell almost seems metaphorical to the paradigm for this form of evangelism. I am not saying it wasn’t used by God or that it’s no longer useful. I’m saying that it is no longer as prominent as it was before on the spectrum of popular evangelistic methods.
In 2008, the late Tim Keller’s book The Reason for God exploded in the Christian world. As a computer engineer at that time, I was coming out of two years of deconstructing my own faith when I read it and I found it tremendously helpful. I am not alone. I have met many people, pastors especially, who have found Keller’s book and larger body of work helpful in resourcing the skeptic and the struggling believer. But The Reason for God will probably not have the same amount of impact outside of the church compared to Mere Christianity and C.S. Lewis’ other books.
Postmodernity is giving way to something else.
2050 will be post postmodern, and we’re in the process of entering it. Secularism birthed post-modernity. And post-modernity returned the favor and is giving birth to post-secularism – or something like it. And to give Keller major credit, he realized this and that’s why his follow-up book called Making Sense of God (2016) was framed more around a post-secular idea: a world that respects the need for religion or what Charles Taylor calls, enchantment.6
Here are three key features of post-secularism:
- Dogmatic atheism is unhelpful… perhaps even a little mean.
- Religious pluralism is assumed… welcomed… maybe even valued.
- It’s okay to appropriate religious language for secular use (ie. guru, chief evangelist, salvation, revival).
When seen as an emerging narrative, this can present an optimistic landscape for future evangelism and missional engagement. This could mean “good news” for the gospel.
Factor #4: Our Strength in Orthodoxy and Commitment to Evangelicalism
The term “evangelical” will likely still exist and be used in 2050. For now, it’s still useful for a lot of what we do and who we are. But perhaps by then, it’ll be useful in the same way the label “protestant” is useful to many of us. To some, we’re “evangelical” because it’s meaningful to us.
It’s emotional for us. We feel evangelical.
But how do we feel about being “protestant”?
Most of us don’t have an emotional attachment to the term. In fact, some even avoid being labeled “protestant” because of its sometimes conflation with mainline liberalism. So here’s a thought: There is a great chance that our children and grandchildren will be opposed to being labeled “evangelical” because of its sometimes conflation – not with mainline liberalism – but with fringe fundamentalism.
Leading up to 2050, there will likely be a large portion of our children and new believers that will feel about Evangelicalism in a similar way that some of us feel about Protestantism. Many who are orthodox Christians have already considered whether or not this is a label worth fighting for.
And whether that is true or not, what is worthwhile is doing the stuff evangelicals talk about.
We have to be good about: The Bible, the Fatherhood of God, the Sonship of God, the Spirit of God, the mission of God. The life, the death, the resurrection of Jesus. The efficacy of his bloodshed and how he achieved the forgiveness of sins – for some of us it’s for the whole world, and for others, it’s for the Elect. (Both are orthodox!) But we also have to be good about the Kingdom of God, and how it’s here and it’s still coming in its fullness. And as we work to usher in the Kingdom, it disrupts and even dismantles unjust systems and structures. The gospel saves and liberates. Christian movements always have led to the poor being uplifted and the marginalized brought to the center. Both women and men rise up together to fulfill their mission for their generation.
If we are not good about these things, it doesn’t matter if there are more megas or more multis or more micros in 2050 – if we’re not good, those things we plant can’t be called churches. And whoever it is that starts them, whether they’re Gen-Z or Alpha or someone else, they can’t be called church planters.
And these factors, and more, not only are shaping the church of 2050, but they are also mobilizing the church of 2024 to venture out and forge a better future for an American Christianity that sees genuine disciples made and the Kingdom of God come to our communities.
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Be sure to read more about the importance of the year 2050 in Becoming a Future-Ready Church: 8 Shifts to Encourage and Empower the Next Generation of Leaders, by Daniel Yang, Adelle Banks, and Warren Bird, copyright 2024, Zondervan.
Notes
- Frey, William H. “The US Will Become ‘Minority White’ in 2045, Census Projects.” Brookings (blog), March 14, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/14/the-us-will-become-minority-white-in-2045-census-projects/.
- Church Multiplication Institute. “A Church Planting Manifesto for 21st Century North America,” 2018. https://wheatonbillygraham.com/church-multiplication-institute/manifesto.
- “Immigrants and the Faith They Bring – Religion Online.” Accessed November 1, 2021. https://www.religion-online.org/article/immigrants-and-the-faith-they-bring/.
- Eric Costanzo, Daniel Yang, and Matthew Soerens, Inalienable: How Marginalized Kingdom Voices Can Help Save the American Church (Downers Grove, Illinois: InterVarsity Press, 2022), pp. 43-44.
- White, James Emery. Meet Generation Z: Understanding and Reaching the New Post-Christian World. Grand Rapids, Michigan: Baker Books, 2017, p. 11.
- Taylor, Charles. “Buffered and Porous Selves.” SSRC The Immanent Frame. Accessed November 1, 2021. https://tif.ssrc.org/2008/09/02/buffered-and-porous-selves/.